According to an analysis from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, by forecasting the hospital demand and death rates, researchers were able to predict peak outbreak of COVID-19 by state if social distancing is maintained.
In this article, we will use the data and findings from this research to answer two questions
(1) When will the Coronavirus outbreak peak in 50 states?
And (2) How long will it last (end)?
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Peak: maximum hospital resource utilization and deaths associated with COVID-19.
Epidemic: refers to an increase in the number of cases of a disease (in this case COVID-19) above what is normally expected in that population in that area.
Pandemic: an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large group of people.
Self-quarantine: isolating one from other individuals for a period of time.
What Cause Infections To Peak? 2 Lessons From The 1918 Flu
On September 17, 1918, Philadelphia identified its first case of a fast-spreading Influenza strain. Despite that knowledge, 10 days later, the city hosted a parade with over 200,000 attendees. In only one month, cases rose to over 20,000. In contrast, New York City was quick to respond with mandatory quarantine and staggered business hours. In results, NYC had the lowest death rate out of all East Coast states in 1919.
Consider the curve as the "wave" of Coronavirus cases. When more people get infected, the curve starts to go up. Depending on how quick cases rise, you can have a very sharp curve or a more hill-like curve.
According to McKinsey, invidividuals with Coronavirus could spread the disease to two or more people. This has a network effect and causes a community spread. As more confirmed cases rise, the curve will "peak". At some point, the curve will start going down because people develop immunity or mass deaths - the virus will "run out" of people to infect.
The peak here refers to the date when the curves hit its highest point, correlates to the most confirmed cases of Coronavirus within in your state or city. Because hospitals have limited beds, there may not be enough room to serve all patients. Because the peak of the curve could be flattened by slowing down the spread, there is still time for us to practice physical distancing.
When Will Coronavirus COVID-19 Peak in 50 States?
As of May 30th, Healthdata.org reported that the peak in deaths due to COVID-19 infections was on April 15th. According to their data, it has been 6 days since the peak resource use, which was on April 13th. It is important to note that there is considerable variation in the peak dates by state. State Health Departments advise all residents practice physical distancing and self-quarantine to slow down the spread.
Because each state has a different level of infection severity, the data of peak will be different depending on where you are.
These dates are the dates for peak hospital resource use by state. The dates will change daily or weekly so be sure to check back for the most up-to-date information. Updated May 28th 2020:
Arizona: July 3rd
California: June 19th
Utah: June 14th
Iowa: June 4td
Nebraska: June 3rd
Virginia: June 2nd
Minnesota: May 31st
North Carolina: May 30th
States not listed have gone past peak dates. New York April 10th, New Jersey April 18th, Illinois May 9th, Maryland April 26th.
How Long Will It Last? When Will Coronavirus End?
This is a complex question because as social distancing and self-quarantine become the new normal, many things we took for-granted pre-COVID will change. Per the reopening guidelines, there will be 3 phases which could last up to 30 days each. This means social distancing, contact tracing, and other public health measures will last up to 2-3 months post peak dates.
Forecasting when the Coronavrius outbreak will end is difficult. First because "end" as a definition is not clearly defined. Here, we will use the scientific definition - when the daily death rate drops below 0.3 per million - as the indicator of the end of this pandemic in individual state.
Although the development of a vaccine will likely take at least 12-18 months, states are using other measures to open up society again. Prediction programs estimate that the spread of COVID-19 on a global scale will end by December 2020; however, with the implementation of social distancing, wearing masks, and antibody/PCR tests, the United States will begin functioning again before there is a vaccine.
What Should I do At Home During Quarantine?
According to survey done by HealthPersona, a company helping individuals manage emotional health, isolation is not only tough but it has a very real impact on your wellbeings. HealthPersona is a providing a free 90-day coaching and assessment program.
We have written an article here about 7 things you could to to manage your mental health during quarantine. Read more
Am I At Risk For COVID-19?
While we are facing a Conavirus outbreak, not all coughs and fever are signs of COVID-19. With that being said, if you have symptoms, take drastic measures and treat it like you are positive and practice self-quarantine. Click here to take our FREE COVID assessment.
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