How Effective Is the Flu Vaccine in 2024?
Recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to those used to make flu vaccines. Flu vaccine effectiveness usually varies from season to season. There are at least two factors that play an essential role in determining the likelihood that vaccination will protect a person from flu illness:
1) Characteristics of the person being vaccinated (such as their age and health).
2) How well the vaccines "match" the flu viruses spreading in the community.
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Flu Vaccine Effectiveness
Since flu vaccine effectiveness varies, researchers and scientists will begin to estimate the effectiveness of the 2023–2024 flu vaccine in the coming months.
However, it's possible to evaluate flu vaccine effectiveness based on data from the previous seasons. Below we analyze flu vaccine effectiveness.
Flu Vaccine Effectiveness By Year
Below we outline the effectiveness of the flu vaccine by year.
| Year | Effectiveness |
|---|---|
| 2004 | 10 percent |
| 2005 | 21 percent |
| 2006 | 52 percent |
| 2007 | 37 percent |
| 2008 | 41 percent |
| 2009 | 56 percent |
| 2010 | 60 percent |
| 2011 | 47 percent |
| 2012 | 49 percent |
| 2013 | 52 percent |
| 2014 | 19 percent |
| 2015 | 48 percent |
| 2016 | 40 percent |
| 2017 | 38 percent |
| 2018 | 29 percent |
| 2019 | 39 percent |
Flu Vaccine Effectiveness By Age Group
There can be a range of variance in flu vaccine effectiveness when it comes to specific age groups. The CDC tracks this data as well as data on the flu's overall effectiveness.
Below we outline flu vaccine effectiveness estimates for all vaccine types across different age groups from the past five flu seasons.
| Flu season | All ages | 6 months to 8 years | 9 to 17 years | 18 to 49 years | 50 to 64 years | 65 years and older |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019–2020 | 39 percent | 34 percent | 40 percent | 34 percent | 40 percent | 39 percent |
| 2018–2019 | 29 percent | 48 percent | 7 percent | 25 percent | 14 percent | 12 percent |
| 2017–2018 | 38 percent | 68 percent | 32 percent | 33 percent | 30 percent | 17 percent |
| 2016–2017 | 40 percent | 57 percent | 36 percent | 19 percent | 40 percent | 20 percent |
| 2015–2016 | 48 percent | 51 percent | 59 percent | 52 percent | 26 percent | 42 percent |
How Long the Flu Vaccine is Effective For
A flu vaccine should protect you through the current flu season. You'll need to receive another flu vaccine for the next flu season. There are several reasons why a flu vaccine is only effective for one flu season.
- Influenza viruses change constantly. Because of this, the strains included in this year's flu vaccine may not be the most common strains during next year's flu season.
- The level of protection (immunity) generated by the flu vaccine wanes over time.
For example, a 2019 study found that, across seven flu seasons, every additional 28 days after vaccination was associated with a 16 percent increase in the likelihood of testing positive for flu.
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Alyssa is a Senior Marketing Associate & Content Writer at Mira. She is passionate about educating others on how to affordably access healthcare.